memory's outbox

before I forget to tell you...

“The most difficult adjustment I had to make was to let go of the idea of “the struggle.” Whether they realize it or not, many New Yorkers are hooked on NYC because they have become conditioned to think that simple things should be a struggle (getting an apartment, getting a job, getting a cab, etc.)”

From ilivehere:SF. My new favorite blog.

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5 days ago

“Since 1982, 2,958 elections have been held for individual Senate and Assembly seats [in New York] and only 39 times has an incumbent seeking re-election lost.”

From an article in the NYTimes.

Recently, I have started to notice pseudo stats. Numbers that seem to imply something profound, but are missing the data that matters. Take the quote above. On first read, the numbers above seem to indicate that ~ 99% of all incumbents win (or at least, that is how I read it). But, that’s not what it says. It says in one percent of elections, an incumbent lost.

Here’s what it doesn’t say: Of all the elections since 1982, how many of those elections involved an incumbent seeking re-election?

Without changing the numbers above, both of the following statements could be true:

A. Incumbents win 99% of the time.

B. Incumbents lose 100% of the time.

If all 2,958 elections involved an incumbent seeking re-election, and the incumbent lost in 39 of those elections, then A is true.

If only 39 of the 2,958 elections involved an incumbent seeking re-election, and all 39 lost, then B is true.

Don’t get me wrong, I am sure the win percentage for incumbents is shockingly high, but the stat above doesn’t get us there. And it scares me that if I had been reading a bit quicker, I’d be trotting out “99% of all incumbents win” at dinner parties when the conversation veered toward the horror show that is Albany.

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1 week ago

I love K-Os, but I hear the opening DJ for this show is the cats meow!

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2 weeks ago

“Don’t ask yourself what the world needs, ask yourself what makes you come alive and go do that, because the world needs people who have come alive.”

Howard Thurman

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2 weeks ago

“MISCHIEF, WILSON MILLS ROAD: Police spotted a man changing the letters on the sign at the Marathon gas station, 6295 Wilson Mills Road at 11:25 p.m. Saturday. The man was told to put the letters back the way they were.”

From the police blotter of a local paper outside of Cleveland. This is how we do.

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3 weeks ago

I first heard Johnny Cash’s version of Hurt on a mix that Luke made for me. I was driving down Falls Road in Baltimore and just about stopped the car.

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3 weeks ago

This isn’t a memory… I was born 6 months later, but I want this shirt.

Supposedly, 25,134fans drank 60,000 beers. Pandemonium ensued.

It all started when a drunk Indians fan attempted to steal Texas outfielder Jeff Burroughs’ cap. From an entry in Wikipedia:

“Confronting the fan, Burroughs tripped, and Texas manager Billy Martin, thinking that Burroughs had been attacked, charged onto the field, his players right behind, some wielding bats. A large number of intoxicated fans – some armed with knives, chains, and portions of stadium seats that they had torn apart – surged onto the field, and others hurled bottles from the stands… Realizing that the Rangers’ lives might be in danger, Ken Aspromonte, the Indians’ manager, ordered his players to grab bats and help the Rangers.”

My favorite part is that all of the bases were stolen during the riot (and were never returned).

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3 weeks ago